Everything is just beginning: forecasts of the duration of the economic crisis

Despite the cautious optimistic forecasts, it is now obvious that the pandemic will not end before the summer of this year. The economic crisis is likely to last several years. Its duration directly depends on the speed of the invention of the vaccine and the effects of the pandemic on human health.

There is no definite answer to this question. It all depends on the interaction of various factors, one of which is the dynamics of the increase in the incidence of corvid 19. Possible consequences for the global economy are calculated on the basis of mathematical models.

Main scenarios

Unfortunately, there is no positive scenario. In any case, the consequences will be felt by everyone. Conventionally, all forecasts can be divided into three categories:

Optimistic. In this case, the pandemic will begin to decline in the summer. At the same time, negative processes in the global economy will last for several months, and it will return to pre-crisis indicators by the end of next year.

Pessimistic. Non-compliance with quarantine measures by some countries and lack of funds for medicine will lead to the further spread of infection. The number of infected around the world will reach 70% of the population. The economy will be completely rebuilt, and humanity will radically change its everyday habits. The crisis state will become a new norm.

Catastrophic. Already there are reports of re-infections of people who have had coronavirus. If the information is confirmed, then mankind is waiting for a significant reduction in numbers. According to some estimates, up to 100 million people can die. In this case, the global economy can expect destruction.

Political factor

In some countries, calls are already being made for mitigation or the complete abolition of quarantine. Politicians believe the economic crisis could do more damage to security and stability than the pandemic that caused it. The carelessness of the population and unwillingness to change the usual way of life push the heads of state to hastily abolish quarantine. We may find ourselves in a situation where the virus will continue to spread, but economic life will return to its previous course. The consequences of such actions by the authorities may manifest themselves after some time. The international community does not yet know how corvid 19 will affect the quality of life and public health.

In any case, do not underestimate the threat and build ambitious plans based on frivolous optimism. Coronavirus our generation will remember for a long time.

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